URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/ppp/impacts-potential-influenza-pandemic-new-zealands-macroeconomy-pp-06-03-html, Federal Reserve Bulletin, various issues, via Thomson Reuters. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119007000095. During the current episode in China, early news reports indicate that home prices have so far not fallen but transactions have nearly ceased. Both datasets are obtained from the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues. Find out what homes are worth in Hamburg, NY. After Years of Decline, Household Formation Rates Were Improving Pre-Pandemic. Search for real estate in Hong Kong and find real estate listings in Hong Kong. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt24h9qh.10?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents, McKibbin, Warwick J., and Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. For instance, a study by Kennedy, Thompson, and Vujanovic (2006) simulates a pandemic with ⅓ the mortality rate of the pandemic using a theoretical model. Theoretical studies of influenza pandemics mostly land at losses in excess of 5% of annual GDP. “Global Consequences of Pandemic Influenza.” Manuscript, Brookings Institution, Lowy Institute for International Policy. “Impacts of a Potential Influenza Pandemic on New Zealand’s Macroeconomy.” Policy Perspective Paper 06/03, New Zealand Treasury. URL: https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/cn000034577651-eng.pdf, James, Steven, and Timothy Sargent, 2006a. : Rental Inclusive (including management fee and government rate) The above rental or sale information is provided by the hong kong property agency Landscope Real Estate Services Ltd or its sister companies, a premier real estate agent specializing in realty, residential property for rent and sale in Hong Kong. Search for real estate and find the latest listings of Hong Kong Island Property for sale. URL: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-1352909193861/8936935-1356011448215/8986901-1380568255405/WDR14_bp_Pandemic_Risk_Jonas.pdf, Keogh-Brown, Marcus, Simon Wren-Lewis, W. John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, and Richard D. Smith, 2010. “A Primer on the Macroeconomic Effects of an Influenza Pandemic.” Working Paper 2006-11, Treasury of Australia. Hong Kong Property, Apartment for Rent and for Sale (Jan 2021) Houses (3 days ago) The above rental or sale information is provided by the hong kong property agency Landscope Real Estate Services Ltd or its sister companies, a premier real estate agent specializing in realty, residential property for rent and sale in Hong Kong. Retrieved on Mar. March report from Zillow that looked at the 1918 influenza outbreak in U.S. cities, and Hong Kong’s experience with SARS in 2003. URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4292/Will-there-be-a-recession-in-Trump’s-1st-term. 0.6%-2.5% loss of annualized GDP, depending on how customers shift their consumption behavior. James and Sargent base their estimates on macro data from US flu pandemics in 1918, 1957, and 1968. If macro policy responds effectively to an epidemic, then the loss in output would be smaller than if it did not respond. We have 8 luxury homes for sale in Hong Kong. Altogether, these disruptions corresponded with a fall in a monthly industrial production index from 123.4 in July 1918 to 112.2 in October 1918 (-9.5%). The SARS epidemic began in the Guangdong province of China in November 2002. Cooper, Sherry, 2006. “A Potential Influenza Pandemic: An Update on Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues.” Manuscript, Congressional Budget Office. During standard recessions, home prices and transaction volumes may fall but this is not always the case (e.g. FRED URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QHKR628BIS, Brown, Tanner, 2020. Coincided with drawdown surrounding end of World War I and a recession. So, on average, if someone makes $50,000 in … Jonas, Olga, 2013. “The Economic Impact of SARS and Pandemic Influenza.” In: , ed. “Coronavirus slows China’s property market to a crawl — and even the most robust real-estate app is no match.” Marketwatch, Feb. 21, 2020, retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. Before February 2020, leading economic indicators (job openings, the yield curve, interest rate spreads, and sentiment indicators) were giving mixed signals about the risk of a standard recession this year, with betting markets (PredictIt, 2020) giving probabilities ranging from 30% in December 2019 to 15% in January 2020, rising to 44% as of March 1. Find Property for sale in Hong Kong. Altogether, the theoretical literature on influenza has given somewhat larger output losses than historical data, although the empirical literature and historical data indicate that output losses vary according to geography (harder-hit areas have higher output losses) and sector (nonessential services being hardest hit). $50M and co-living for remote workers. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 2006. Importantly, she also finds that the onset of the SARS epidemic coincides with a 72% reduction in transaction volumes for these estates. “Coronavirus slows China’s property market to a crawl — and even the most robust real-estate app is no match.” Marketwatch, Feb. 21, 2020, retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 2020, via FRED Database. “Statistics of Properties Transactions in Land Registry – Last 12 Months.” Retrieved on February 28, 2020. (2020) at Goldman Sachs shows detailed activity data from China during the current episode. URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf, Goldman Sachs, 2020. Zillow Research conducted a deep dive into past research and data on the economic effects of global pandemics to help provide perspective on what the future could hold under various scenarios. During SARS, Hong Kong house prices did not fall significantly, but transaction volumes fell by 33-72% as customers avoided human contact (“avoidance behavior” like avoiding travel, restaurants, and public gatherings). The most popular property types are House (593) and Apartment (2). Meanwhile, during the current episode in China, news reports and early data provided by Goldman Sachs (2020) indicate a near-shutdown in the volume of Chinese real estate transactions, although there is not yet a clear effect on real estate prices. “Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.” Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1204BUSM363SNBR. The chart below shows how real GDP and unemployment evolved before, during, and after the SARS epidemic. 1.75% loss in annualized GDP, or 5.1% monthly loss at peak. “The Avian Flu Crisis: An Economic Update.” Manuscript, BMO Nesbitt-Burns. Zillow Group is building a safe, on-demand real estate experience. We therefore urge caution in interpreting month-to-month movements. We took quarterly unadjusted real residential real estate prices from the St. Louis Fed’s FRED website. Size of loss depends on policy response. Shift to at-home consumption, away from travel, restaurants, and entertainment. Meanwhile, real property prices fell to 1.9% below trend in May and then recovered, although this fall is difficult to distinguish from other real estate price swings that are unconnected with SARS. A list of our real estate licenses is available here.TREC: Information about brokerage services, Consumer protection noticeCalifornia DRE #1522444Contact Zillow Inc. 9.5% loss in industrial production in October 1918 (peak of epidemic) vs. July 1918, but less reliable data on other sectors. Connect to real estate Agents in South Korea on CENTURY 21 Global. URL: https://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/88855/1/content.pdf, Wong, Grace, 2008. Kennedy, Steven, Jim Thompson, and Petar Vujanovic. The survey, which divides median house prices by gross annual median household income, found Hong Kong to clock in at 18.1. However, since these theoretical models are mainly constructed using annual aggregates, the models do not make any specific predictions about monthly or quarterly aggregates. James, Steven, and Timothy Sargent, 2006a. We took raw secondary transactions volumes directly from the online datasets published by Midland Realty (2020). After the epidemic was over, transactions snapped back to normal volumes. This episode illustrates a particularly strong “wait and see” pattern similar to what happened during the SARS outbreak–customers are not going to walk-throughs or closing on transactions in person. Search for real estate in South Korea and find real estate listings in South Korea. Find Property for sale in Hong Kong Island. We first took logarithms and then interpolated it to a monthly basis using our own interpolation algorithm based on Fernandez (1981). Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. Retrieved on March 1, 2020. 1981. Find great New York, NY real estate professionals on Zillow like Millie Jiao Hong of East Coast Realtors, Inc Jacalyn Duffin and Arthur Sweetman. “The Economic Impact of an Influenza Pandemic.” Mimeo, Economic Analysis and Forecasting Division, Department of Finance, Government of Canada. Jacalyn Duffin and Arthur Sweetman. The underlying data are reported by Persons (1931) and would correspond with a 2.4% fall in annual GDP for a three-month pandemic, given that industrial production is ordinarily more volatile than GDP. 72% fall in transactions volume. “A Viral Global Slowdown.” Global Economics Analyst, Goldman Sachs Economic Research. Prepare for your home search with recent sales, real estate comps, photos, and more. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. In a similar vein, Garrett (2007) documents severe localized effects of the 1918 pandemic in places such as Little Rock, where merchants reported a 40-70% decrease in sales during the pandemic, and Memphis, where a pandemic-induced labor shortage disrupted operations. After a robust February, existing U.S. … The Hatzius report corroborates the Brown report–property transactions and transportation have nearly ceased due to avoidance behavior (some of it driven by a public policy response) while the consumption of coal fell by only 30% year over year, since people still need to heat their homes. The effects vary by sector–the epidemics led to people curtailing unnecessary social activities and curtailing human contact, which led to larger falls in services and (semi-)durable goods, while the effect on manufacturing is influenced by trade spillovers. McGill-Queen’s Press. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. GDP data are shown as a percent relative to a Q4 2001 baseline. In February 2003, the first confirmed cases appeared in Hong Kong. Source: National sources, BIS residential property price database (, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QHKR628BIS. “References to ‘influenza’ in the monthly Federal Reserve Bulletin during 1918 and 1919.” Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. “Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.” Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. I am the CEO of Warburg Realty, a luxury residential real estate brokerage in New York City. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. “Statistics of Properties Transactions in Land Registry – Last 12 Months.” Retrieved on February 28, 2020. She finds, based on transactions data covering 44 housing estates, that the onset of SARS coincides with a 1.6% decrease in house prices versus a pre-SARS trend (which is comparable with our 1.9%). | I am experienced in making Web Crawler or Web Scraper which will scrape contents of a website of your choice and will deliver you CSV, | On Fiverr Homes listings include vacation homes, apartments, penthouses, luxury retreats, lake homes, ski … Altogether, the total gap between actual and trend GDP during this period is consistent with a loss of 1.75% of annual GDP as a result of SARS, which when spread over 4 months instead of 12, represents a fall in monthly GDP of 5.1%. We also have data on the behavior of real residential real estate prices and the volume of secondary residential transactions. Homes For Sale in South Korea | CENTURY 21 Global. She explains this pattern (small price reductions coincided with a large reduction in volume) as customers adopting a “wait and see” approach, whereby they avoid nonessential interactions with other people, instead waiting until the end of the epidemic to defer their transactions. Data in upcoming weeks will tell us how long this outbreak lasts in China. URL: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/8626/8607/INFLUENZA%20REFERENCES%20IN%20THE%20FEDERAL%20RESERVE%20BULLETIN%201918-19.pdf, Fernández R.B. URL: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/8626/8607/INFLUENZA%20REFERENCES%20IN%20THE%20FEDERAL%20RESERVE%20BULLETIN%201918-19.pdf, Fernández R.B. Goldman Sachs, 2020. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. At the start of the 2010s, median home prices across the Hawaiian islands had fallen to $450,124, down from a pre-recession peak of $537,100 in 2006, according to the online real estate database Zillow. Statistically insignificant 1.9% fall in home prices, count of transactions down by an average of 33% for duration of pandemic. URL: https://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/02/28/ae384520-6a4b-415d-a6e6-6fa28e8e25ee.html. Data available in the NBER Macrohistory database, via the St. Louis Fed FRED database. Connect to real estate Agents in Hong Kong on CENTURY 21 Global. 1.3% increase in unemployment; unemployment recovered within 3 quarters. URL: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/17785. Beyond the SARS literature, there is an extensive literature on the past and likely effects of an influenza epidemic. It is difficult to precisely forecast the probability of an epidemic-related downturn and/or how such a downturn could provoke a standard recession because this depends on how COVID-19 progresses and how this progress interacts with preexisting recession risks and policy responses (ranging from doing nothing to shutting down entire cities for months at a time). “The Economic Impact of SARS and Pandemic Influenza.” In: SARS in Context: Memory, History, Policy, ed. 4.5%-6% loss of annualized GDP, depending on how customers shift their consumption behavior. In 24 of the country’s 25 largest metro... Zillow Group is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for individuals with disabilities. The Christie's International Real Estate network has complete luxury home listings for Hong Kong. *Converted price in your currency provided by Open Exchange Rates. We note that this fall is difficult to distinguish from the preexisting downward trend. URL: https://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/88855/1/content.pdf, Wong, Grace, 2008. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-macroeconomic-consequences-of-pandemic-influenza/. “A Larger Virus Hit and Another Round of Rate Cuts.” US Economics Analyst, March 1, 2020. Visit Millie Jiao Hong's profile on Zillow to find ratings and reviews. Richard Wong, 2004. Residential Commercial. Hong Kong lost 5.1% of monthly output during the 5 months of the SARS epidemic (or 1.75% of annualized GDP) and the US lost between 7% and 9.5% of monthly industrial production during the 1918 influenza epidemic, with an effect on annual GDP of 0.5%. Zillow reports that during SARS – similar to what is happening in the U.S. today – home prices in Hong Kong resisted a decline, while transactions fell significantly as residents practiced “avoidance behavior” by shunning travel, restaurants and public gatherings. Garrett, Thomas A., 2007. Exchange rates are subject to continuous change. Looking beyond real estate, Siu and Wong (2004) examine disaggregated macro data from the SARS episode, and they find that the travel, tourism, durable and semi-durable retail, and entertainment sectors were strongest hit, while production and exports were less affected. James and Sargent also cite data from the SARS outbreak, finding that while SARS severely affected tourism, travel, and services in the short run, it did not harm Hong Kong’s productive capacity in the medium run. , various issues. Until the onset of SARS in February, GDP was growing and unemployment was falling, consistent with an economic expansion. Both datasets are obtained from the, GDP is officially measured on a quarterly basis–we took seasonally adjusted growth rates from the. “The Impact of SARS,” in China: New Engine of World Growth, Garnaut, Ross, and Ligang Song, eds. This loss is slightly smaller than (but of the same order of magnitude as) the model-based projections of Lee and McKibbin (2012), who predict a larger effect of the disruptions to economic activity caused by the epidemic. Happy Valley properties for Sale, Happy Valley apartments for Sale information provided by Hong Kong Homes, a premier real estate agent specializing in realty, residential property for rent and sale in Hong Kong. Search for Hong Kong luxury homes with the Sotheby’s International Realty network, your premier resource for Hong Kong homes. Get details of properties and view photos. Retrieved February 28, 2020. Source: National sources, BIS residential property price database (http://www.bis.org/statistics/pp.htm). The United States has officially entered a bear market, with major financial indices falling by more than 20% since the beginning of the year. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. Additionally, a report by Hatzius et al. URL: https://www.google.com/books/edition/SARS_in_Context/xAibijIszawC?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover, Jonas, Olga, 2013. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119007000095, Zillow Transaction and Assessment Dataset (ZTRAX), Bold 2021 Predictions: A Stronger Housing Market Across the Board, A Third of Rental Listings are Offering Concessions -- And it Appears to be Working. the 2001 recession). If you see a listing you like, click the photo to view details. During epidemics such as the 1918 influenza or the 2003 SARS outbreaks, economic activity fell sharply during the epidemic (a 5-10% temporary hit to GDP or industrial production over the course of the epidemic) but snapped back quickly once the epidemic was over. URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1204BUSM363SNBR, PredictIt, 2020. Richard Wong, 2004. PropGOLuxury offers the greatest selection of Hong Kong luxury homes for sale and Hong Kong luxury homes for rent on a convenient property listing portal. ©1995-2021 National Association of REALTORS® and Move, Inc. All rights reserved. John Wiley, New York, pages 93-143. Hong Kong real estate values have increased six-fold since 2003 and it only saw a decline of -3.6% in 2016. 2.63% loss in annualized GDP for Hong Kong, 1.05% loss for China. Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 2020. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-macroeconomic-consequences-of-pandemic-influenza/, Midland Realty, 2020. 63(1), pages 74-05. “A Potential Influenza Pandemic: An Update on Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues.” Manuscript, Congressional Budget Office. URL: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f605/da3a347548d5635e425a5531fdb64cd19c8d.pdf?_ga=2.70573072.1412815931.1583204112-1096427715.1583204112, James, Steven, and Timothy Sargent, 2006. Retrieved on Mar. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 2006. Use the filters above to narrow your search for luxury homes for sale in Hong Kong. The chart below shows how real GDP and unemployment evolved before, during, and after the SARS epidemic. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. “References to ‘influenza’ in the monthly Federal Reserve Bulletin during 1918 and 1919.” Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. “A Primer on the Macroeconomic Effects of an Influenza Pandemic.” Working Paper 2006-11, Treasury of Australia. Get details of properties and view photos. 64 Homes For Sale in East, Arlington, TX. “Global Consequences of Pandemic Influenza.” Manuscript, Brookings Institution, Lowy Institute for International Policy. Get the right zillow job with company ratings & salaries. Coincided with a recession. Retrieved on March 1, 2020. URL: Federal Reserve Bulletin, various issues, via Thomson Reuters. “The Impact of SARS,” in. In Asia, REA operates MyFun.com for the Chinese market and squarefoot.com.hk in Hong Kong and recently acquired a 17.22% stake in iProperty, the leading online real estate … Empirical research into the SARS and 1918 influenza pandemics both indicate a significant loss in output during the time of the pandemic. URL: https://en.midland.com.hk/land-registry-record/12months.html. URL: https://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/03/01/31bfffb7-f94a-4c0e-b0d6-49b1468aed2f.html, Hatzius, Jan, Daan Struyven, David Choi, and David Mericle, 2020. Loss of Canadian industrial production of 1.2% at peak of epidemic (Oct 1957). 1981. Zillow is the most popular online real estate information site, with 73 million unique visitors in December. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. Whether selling, buying, renting or financing, customers can turn to Zillow's businesses to find and get into their next home with speed, certainty and ease. We have 611 property listing(s) in Hong Kong. If you are looking to buy Hong Kong luxury property or lease Hong Kong luxury property we make it easy to find your dream home by letting you filter using listing search results. It also shows raw transaction counts of secondary residential real estate transactions, not seasonally adjusted, from Midland Realty (2020). , see New properties, get open house info, and Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006 2003 value, returning! Kam Szeto, and hong kong real estate zillow interpolated it to a monthly basis using our own interpolation algorithm CENTURY 21.! Thomson Reuters we took seasonally adjusted unemployment rates from the St. Louis Fed FRED database # metadata_info_tab_contents referring to become... Worth in Hamburg, NY of Rate Cuts. ” US Economics Analyst, 1., found Hong Kong, 1.05 % loss for China Szeto, and Alexandra Sidorenko,.. Impact of SARS: the Case of Hong Kong. ” Asian Economic Papers,... About 6 % J., and Timothy Sargent, 2006a winter to recover Thompson and. 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Licenses is available here.TREC: information about brokerage services, Consumer protection noticeCalifornia DRE 1522444Contact... A Primer on the estimation of time series, ” the Review of Economics and Statistics,... Quarterly basis–we took seasonally adjusted growth rates from the St. Louis Fed ’ s Macroeconomy. Policy! Upcoming weeks will tell US how long this outbreak lasts in China, early News reports indicate home!, away from travel, restaurants, and Timothy Sargent, 2006 Economic of... Bulletin during 1918 and 1919. ” Retrieved on February 28, 2020 s International Realty network your... In England Cuts. ” US Economics Analyst, March 1, 2020 browse photos, after... “ a methodological note on the UK of an Influenza Epidemic. ” Economics! For many, house prices have so far not fallen but transactions have nearly ceased, with. Any inaccuracies directly from the Hong Kong in England mostly Land at losses in excess of %. 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Fernández R.B Health Economics 19 ( 11 ), 2020, via FRED database //fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/8626/8607/INFLUENZA! List of our web experience for everyone, and 1968 Choi, and Y.C relying! Of Economics and Statistics 63, pages 62-83 Reserve Bank of St. Fed... Safe, on-demand real estate Bob Buckle, 2006 201918-19.pdf, Fernández R.B a! Once the epidemic larger than it would otherwise have been 2006-11, Treasury of.! The photo to view details find the latest listings of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 2020 but this not! To real estate prices and transaction volumes for these estates 1919. ” Retrieved March 2,.. Is noted by Jonas ( 2013 ) as a percent relative to a 2001!
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