Indeed, Transnistria is precisely the model Russia has in mind, experts say – the rebel region, propped up by Russian political and military might, is increasingly seen as the forerunner for frozen conflicts in what Russia sees as its post-Soviet ‘sphere of influence’. A closer look at two of these conflicts, the one in Moldova over Transnistria and Ukraine’s ongoing shooting war with Russia-backed insurgents in the Donbas, reveals a number of important similarities and differences. The Jamestown Foundation writes that the OSCE concept of a region’s “special status,” as currently applied to Transnistria, is a Russian creation. Considered by all UN member states to be a region of Moldova, Transnistria nevertheless maintains a full complement of parallel institutions, complete with a university and a standing army. Transnistria is emerging as the model for Russia’s strategy towards frozen conflicts across its ex-Soviet backyard, experts in Moldova say. Georgia, for its part, says these statements may be part of a policy to place pressure on the new authorities of Abkhazia. The last 20 years have seen a variety of diplomatic efforts to resolve the status of Transnistria, none of which have succeeded. In October 2018, Dodon visited the Kremlin for the first time in his presidency to discuss trade policy and other “regional issues,” telling Russian reporters that NATO “should not be [present]” in Moldova. Negotiations have proceeded under this framework since 2016, when the OSCE initiated its efforts in Transnistria. Transnistria is a presidential democracy. There are some 400, alongside 1,500 regular Russian troops. The PMR controls the main part of this region, and the city of Bender and its surrounding localities on the west bank, in the historical region of Bessarabia. In July 2018, however, Dmitry Kozak—Deputy Prime Minister of Russia—returned to the scene as Russia’s “representative for the development of commercial-economic relations with the Republic of Moldova,” a role which has afforded him access to officials in the highest levels of the Moldovan government. Transnistria’s proximity to south-western Ukraine has also played an important role in Russia’s calculations. Transnistria’s authorities had tried to shut it down in 2004, but the OSCE intervened to save it, and it now belongs to the school system of Moldova proper. Transnistrian soccer clubs … Ukraine, its Western backers and Russia have been discussing for several years the possibility of deploying United Nations peacekeepers to eastern Ukraine, where a Russian-fomented rebellion escalated in 2014 escalated into a war that has killed more than 13,000 people and is now locked in a fragile stalemate. Most recently, talks arranged by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have featured a “small steps” approach, whereby participants reach a series of relatively small agreements in hopes of arriving at a final resolution. Isac said Moscow had a willing collaborator in Moldova’s pro-Russian president, Igor Dodon, who may gain voters in any re-integration of Transnistria. The leader of the Transnistrian region of Moldova, Vadim Krasnoselski (L) shakes hands with the President of Moldova Igor Dodon (R) during a meeting in Condrita village, at presidential residence, 36 kilometres West from Chisinau, Moldova, September 6, 2018. As Transnistria slips away from Russia economically and toward the West, the soccer union between Transnistria and Moldova is getting stronger. The region is made up of a majority of ethnic Russians, and many want to be part of Russia… Recently, Russia has revived a 2003 plan called the Kozak Memorandum, which calls for an asymmetrical federal Moldovan state, with Transnistria and the autonomous, pro-Russian region of Gagauzia granted equal say in deciding the strategic course of the country, i.e. The success of Russia’s multilateral approach is predicated on the concept of “unity of mediators and observers” in the OSCE talks; any developments assented to by both the European Union and Moscow are implicitly forced upon Moldova, which would be pressured to accept the “unified” conclusion. As detailed by the Jamestown Foundation, the negotiations have gifted Russia a degree of international legitimacy in its push for greater influence in former Soviet states. The current President is Vadim Krasnoselsky. Russia Pulls Transnistria Strings, with Eye on Ukraine, Moldova’s Democrats Seen Pulling Strings in High-Stakes Election, With Cheap Energy, Transnistria Taps Cryptocurrency Potential, Moldova in 2019: Year of Elections May Redefine Politics. whether it should ever join the European Union or NATO. Chisinau analysts see the Russian initiative as a trial balloon, testing the positions of Western powers with a view to other frozen conflicts and how to thwart the further Western integration of other former Soviet republics. In a stroke of irony, an OSCE delegation visited Transnistria to evaluate the progress of the negotiations on September 10, the very same day that the results of unilaterally Russian-sponsored elections were being announced. Officially, Russia still positions itself as Transnistria’s main strategic partner in all spheres – political, humanitarian, economic, cultural, and educational. Instead, Russia has continually advocated increasing autonomy for the region, but has stopped short of calling for Transnistrian independence or annexation. Transnistrians would like to be part of Russia but since Russia doesn’t want them – because the territory doesn’t have much value – and they don’t want to be part of Moldova, they are kind of stuck in between. While small steps, including agreements on Transnistrian license plates and acknowledgement of Transnistrian diplomas, have been implemented over the last two years, the greatest winner from the OSCE negotiations may be Russia. Transnistria, too, says it will settle for nothing less than independence. Indeed, Russia’s Transnistrian gambit may prove a robust strategy for years to come. Ukraine, the EU and US say that move … Volodymir Zelensky was a teenager when Russia sent peacekeepers into Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region in the early 1990s. Perhaps more importantly, however, Russia has continued to pursue closer economic and political ties to build its “soft power.” At least in the short run, this policy seems to be working—the 2016 election of President Igor Dodon solidified pro-Russian sentiment in Moldovan government policy. Between the pro-Russian stance of President Dodon and the disarray of pro-Western factions in Moldova, it seems likely that Russia will at least see short-term success. This does not mean, however, that it has become closer to the European Union. Transnistria (Romanian: Transnistria, [transˈnistria]; Russian: Приднестровье; Ukrainian: Придністров'я) is a region in Eastern Europe, which forms a narrow strip of territory to the east of the Dniester river. The territory has enjoyed de facto independence since a brief military conflict in 1992, though it is internationally recognized as a part of Moldova. Russian interventions on behalf of Russian-speaking populations abroad have frequently been the cause of much tension, most notably in Crimea, where expansionist strategic considerations and patriotic fervor precipitated Russia’s violent seizure of Ukrainian territory. In the long run, Russia will earn from and improve this approach of pushing its agenda under the guise of a recognized international framework. Russia came close to achieving this in 2003 with the so-called Kozak Memorandum, a policy proposal which detailed a vision of Moldova as an “asymmetric federal Moldovan state.” If accepted, the plan would have granted Transnistria a high degree of legislative power, both within Transnistria and within the federalized state as a whole. The president is directly elected for a maximum of two-consecutive five-year terms. This is a non-starter for Moldova, not least given that Transnistria accounts for only four per cent of the country’s population and Gagauzia even less with four per cent. Ryan Cimmino. Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia are members of the Community for Democracy and Rights of Nations, an organisation of states in the former USSR which have limited international recognition. Defying Dictatorships: An Interview with Garry Kasparov, On Atlantic Alliances and Autocrats: An Interview with Jeanne Shaheen, Europe’s Awakening to China’s Tech Dominance. The region is home to a large Russian-speaking population; many current inhabitants trace their origins to Soviet-era migrations of Russians and Ukrainians into eastern Moldova. Further, Russia depicts itself as a reliable geopolitical alternative to the European Union, with some success: one April 2016 survey showed that while 62 percent of Moldovans support Vladimir Putin as a popular foreign politician, only 30 percent favor Angela Merkel or Barack Obama. They remain at odds over the scope, makeup and mandate of such a force. Transnistria is a breakaway region of Moldova in which ethnic Russians and Ukrainians together outnumber ethnic Moldovans. Transnistria is emerging as the model for Russia’s strategy towards frozen conflicts across its ex-Soviet backyard, experts in Moldova say. Russia’s interest in Moldova is itself part of its larger bid for influence over post-Soviet states, as well as its posture against the eastward expansion of Western institutions like NATO and the European Union. Photo: BIRN/Madalin Necsutu. Infographic: BIRN. Winding along the eastern border of Moldova with Ukraine, the unrecognized state of Transnistria—named for its location across the River Dniester—bears the imprint of a Soviet past long since abandoned by the rest of Europe. Almost three decades on, Zelensky is president of Ukraine, and the peacekeepers in Transnistria are still there. Copyright BIRN 2007 | Terms of use | Privacy Policy | Powered by WordPress / WPML, A young man passing by an old-soviet tank in the centre of Tiraspol city. Transnistria — lost in Moldova Conflicts stuck on repeat. This would, in turn, have ossified Russia’s political leverage over all of Moldova. Proposals are sounding in Russia to annex Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria and the Donbass.. Photo: Doru Dumitru. “At the same time, Moscow is using Gagauz autonomy to put pressure on Chisinau.”. Portraits of Putin and Lenin can be bought and sold on the city streets of Tiraspol, the de facto capital of Transnistria; storefronts and street signs almost exclusively feature the Cyrillic script, both for Russian and Romanian; even the flag bears the infamous Communist hammer-and-sickle. Russia has provided Transnistria with expensive military, political and socio-economic assistance without which Transnistria could not exist. Between Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova lies the breakaway region known as Transnistria. Transnistria has its own currency, passports and number plates which aren’t recognised by the vast majority of the world’s countries. “Moscow is trying to impose Tiraspol as an equal-rights player in the construction of a future Moldovan state,” said Isac. Originally published in the HIR Winter 2019 Issue. However, for its control over Transnistria, Russia pays a high price. In fact, Transnistria is an unrecognized country only recognized by unrecognized countries: Abkhazia – within Georgia. Transnistria has sought to join Russia after breaking away from Moldova in 1990. The pro-Western political movement, by contrast, is firmly controlled by oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc and has become synonymous with corruption after a 2015 scandal in which US$1 billion—nearly 12 percent of Moldova’s GDP—disappeared from Moldovan banks. “In the conditions of unresolved conflict, the withdrawal of Russian troops, which form the basis of the peacekeeping contingent in the security zone, will lead to a new round of escalation of the conflict,” Dirun told BIRN. Although Russia does not recognise Transnistria as an independent state, it maintains a consulate in Tiraspol (the Transnistrian capital). Osce initiated its efforts in Transnistria are still there construction of a policy to place pressure on the new of. 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